A representative survey conducted by the clean energy technology company Aira reveals major knowledge gaps among the German public about upcoming CO₂ pricing rules and their financial consequences.
As the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS II) is restructured, the cost of fossil fuels such as gas and heating oil will rise sharply from 2027. Experts predict a CO₂ price of up to 300 euros per tonne – on a par with the energy price peaks seen in 2022. Yet most of the population is unprepared for the change.
Many have heard of CO₂ pricing but lack deeper knowledge
Although many Germans are familiar with the concept of CO₂ pricing, detailed knowledge is rare. 35% are not familiar with the details of the upcoming CO₂ price reform and 23% have never heard of it. From 2027, EU emissions trading will be extended to cover buildings and transport. Germany already has a fixed CO₂ price on heating oil, natural gas and fuels, but in future prices will be set by market supply and demand, not by the state. As a central tool of EU climate policy, the aim is to reduce emissions through market incentives rather than bans. However, the unfamiliar system makes it hard for many people to prepare for the expected cost increases.
Most underestimate the financial impact
The future costs of CO₂ pricing are widely underestimated. A realistic scenario for 2030 – with a CO₂ price of 200–300 euros per tonne – could mean up to 1,400 euros in extra annual costs for an average gas-heated detached house. Only 5% of respondents estimated this level correctly. Most gave significantly lower amounts: 23% thought it would be under 500 euros, 33% 500–800 euros, while almost 20% could not give any estimate.
The scenario reflects the upper end of scientific forecasts and was deliberately chosen to highlight the potential financial burden if effective climate policy fails to materialise. The actual costs for consumers will ultimately depend on political decisions. Proposals such as a climate bonus or socially graduated compensation models are being discussed, but how the transition will be made fair is still unclear.
Climate costs hit unevenly – many want to act but lack the means
Many recognise the need to act but often lack the means. 9% of respondents have already taken measures such as changing their heating system, renovating, moving or reducing their energy use, and a further 19% plan measures in the coming years. At the same time, around a third (32%) say they would like to act but are currently prevented by external circumstances, such as financial constraints or because they rent their home. People on lower incomes show a greater willingness to act but more often run into practical obstacles.
CO₂ pricing requires practical and fair solutions
The survey shows that although awareness of rising climate-related costs is growing, many still lack concrete knowledge, realistic expectations and the means to act. For CO₂ pricing to work without reinforcing social inequalities, strong political frameworks and practical technical solutions are needed that can bridge the gap between knowledge, willingness and action.
For homeowners and property owners, heat pumps already offer a future-proof solution: they provide independence from fossil fuels – and thereby from CO₂ pricing. Combined with suitable electricity contracts, they can be both climate-smart and cost-effective. Aira shows how the transition can work in practice: as a full-service heat pump provider, the company offers a complete package – from energy analysis and advice on grants to installation carried out by local teams. In-house developed, tailored product systems, a 15-year guarantee, monthly financing options and consumption-optimised green electricity contracts make the switch to a sustainable heating solution both predictable and affordable.
“Carbon pricing is a strong driver of the energy transition, but Aira's data shows that most households do not know what it means for their personal finances,” says Martin Lewerth, Group CEO of Aira Group.
He continues: “We must close this knowledge gap in Germany – and probably across Europe – before it starts to affect household finances. When it comes to residential heating, a solution already exists. By switching to an intelligent heat pump and replacing fossil fuels with renewable electricity, people can stabilise and lower their energy costs and permanently avoid rising gas prices.”
For enquiries
Maja Ruhbach, PR & Communications Manager – maja.ruhbach@airahome.com
Editor's note
The representative survey included 1,000 participants in Germany with an average age of 41.5 years and was conducted in March by Appinio.
The scenario is based on a CO₂ price of 200–300 euros per tonne in 2030, in line with modelling from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC, 2023 – PDF available on request).
About Aira
Aira delivers clean energy technology directly to consumers and aims to become Europe's leading brand in the industry. The company is accelerating the electrification of residential heating with intelligent clean energy technology to enable a net-zero future. Aira offers households across Europe complete energy-saving solutions, with intelligent heat pumps at their core. The vertically integrated model, combined with a consumer-focused monthly payment plan with no upfront cost, delivers market-leading consumer economics. Aira was founded in Stockholm by Vargas Holding and is backed by climate- and innovation-focused investors, including Altor, the Burda family, Collaborative Fund, Creades, Kinnevik, Lingotto, Nesta Impact Investments, Statkraft Ventures and Temasek.